What are incremental organic leads actually worth to you?
Put in your own close rates, job value and margin. The calculator works out the gross profit, the break-even, and how many leads a month it takes before the spend pays for itself. Nothing is preloaded and nothing you type leaves your browser.
Every formula this page uses.
There is nothing proprietary here. It is published so you can check the working, or rebuild it in a spreadsheet and never come back.
| Output | Formula | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Inspections per month | incremental leads x lead-to-inspection rate | The first place optimism hides. |
| Closed jobs per month | inspections x inspection-to-sale rate | The second place. |
| Revenue per month | closed jobs x average closed-job value | Before any cost of doing the work. |
| Gross profit per month | revenue x gross margin | The number the business actually keeps. |
| Gross profit ROI | (gross profit - investment) / investment | The figure worth quoting. |
| Break-even closed jobs | investment / (job value x gross margin) | Jobs per month that cover the spend. |
| Break-even incremental leads | break-even jobs / (lead-to-inspection x inspection-to-sale) | Leads per month that cover the spend. |
| Monthly revenue needed | investment / gross margin | The revenue that pays for the work at your margin. |
How to read the output.
Take a contractor entering a $9,000 average job, a 45% lead-to-inspection rate, a 30% inspection-to-sale rate, a 40% gross margin, 12 expected incremental leads a month and a $4,000 monthly investment. That produces 5.4 inspections, 1.6 closed jobs, $14,580 of revenue and $5,832 of gross profit, so the month clears the spend by $1,832 and the gross profit ROI is 46%. Break-even sits at 1.1 closed jobs, or roughly 8.2 incremental leads a month.
Those inputs are illustrative and are not a benchmark. They are one arithmetic example chosen to show the shape of the output, and no part of that scenario is a figure we measured or recommend you assume.
The limits, before you quote the number.
- This is a steady-state model. It shows what a month looks like once the incremental leads are actually arriving, and says nothing about how long that takes. Organic search does not deliver in month one, and we do not publish a ramp curve because we have not measured one for this vertical.
- Every input is yours. We do not preload industry averages for close rate, margin or job value, because we hold no verified benchmark for them and a plausible default would put an invented number into your business case.
- Incremental leads are an assumption you are making, not a forecast we are supplying. The calculator shows what that assumption is worth if it holds.
- Gross profit ROI is the number that matters. Revenue ROI is shown because people ask for it, and it flatters every scenario by ignoring the cost of doing the work.
- Leads are not jobs. The two conversion rates are where most of the optimism in any model of this kind hides.
- Nothing you type here is sent anywhere. The arithmetic runs in your browser, there is no request to our servers, and none of these figures appear in the page URL.
- instrument
- Your own inputs, multiplied in your browser
- what was measured
- Nothing. This is a projection from figures you supply, not a measurement of anything.
- how
- Arithmetic only. No model call, no API request, and no data of ours is mixed in.
- over what window
- Steady state, once the incremental leads are arriving. No ramp is modelled.
- what this cannot tell you
- It cannot tell you whether those leads exist in your market, how long they take to arrive, or what your close rate really is. Caldrin's measured numbers come from our own tracking and are never mixed with a projection like this one.
Are those incremental leads actually available?
This page tells you what leads are worth. It cannot tell you whether your market has them. That takes measurement, which is what the free report does.